18/08/18. Dynamo K - PFK Oleksandria. Premier League (Ukraine).

Corner-stats.com team drew its attention to this match because of the following reasons:

•    14/08/2018 Dynamo defeated Slavia, putting much efforts in the match;
•    In some days Dynamo will play with Ajax in Champions League;
•    In Ukrainian Premier League  2018/19 Dynamo won 3 times in 3 matches. Alexandria has 4 wins in 4 matches respectively. Consequently, it will be wrong to say that Alexandria is a weak opponent; the game will be difficult for both teams. Logically, Dynamo will strive for winning, putting minimum efforts and Alexandria will play in all power.

That’s why equal line on -1.25 handicap on goals probably doesn’t count teams’ motivation for match and was figured out like usual stats. As -1.25 is the main handicap (50-50 chances), let's look at the history of covering the main handicap by the teams:

•    H2H matches: in 5 out of 11 matches Alexandria held the handicap and in 0.5 matches the was a return on handicap in 2015-2018 seasons;
•    Dynamo didn’t manage to cover the handicap in 6.5 matches in last 18 home matches in the Ukrainian Championships within 2017-2018 years. There was the return on handicap in 1.5 matches;
•    Alexandria kept handicap in 6.0 matches in last 18 away matches in the Ukrainian Championships. There was the return on handicap in 3.5 matches.

These numbers say that stats of the main handicap shows approximately equal chances of the teams. The bookmaker demonstrates the same information.

Let’s look at similar matches:

•    Dynamo played 25 matches with the teams that are similar to Alexandria during 2016-2018 years. The team covered the handicap just in 4 matches and the return on handicap was in 5.5 matches (this stats you can see on the screenshot below);
•    Alexandria played 12 games with the teams that are similar to Dynamo within 2016-2018 years. Alexandria kept handicap in 7 matches.

Considering above factors, Corner-stats.com team believes that +1.25  handicap on goals will be kept by Alexandria and the bet at 1.93 odds at Pinnacle will play.